The model teleconnection plots presented here are only those for JAS for CW-Ethiopia and ON for S-Ethiopia, where the observed rainfall data show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . It also went extinct between 780,000 and 600,000 years ago. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. 0000008184 00000 n 2014 ). J Climate 22:9931013. The aim of the study is to analyze the spatio-temporal variability and projection of rainfall and temperature (2021-2040) in Suha watershed, North West highlands of Ethiopia. In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. Ethiopia has a high central plateau that varies from 1,290 to 3,000 m (4,232 to 9,843 ft) above sea level, with the highest mountain reaching 4,533 . MRD 8:131138. We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. Google Scholar, Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. J Climate 16:27352751. The SSTs indices considered over the Indian Ocean are the central Indian Ocean index (CIndO) average over (55E95E and 25S10N) as described in Rowell (2013), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is the average over (10S10N and 50E70E) minus the average over (10S0 and 90E110E) as described in Saji et al. The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. The "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" rating indicates that Ethiopia's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C. Conf. /* stream No correlation was found for the MAM and JAS seasons. However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. @'d\0KxI(=|` [13] also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall regimes across the dry tropical regions. Thus, to make further detailed studies at subregional and local scales and to enhance the ability of regional rainfall forecast skills, it is very important to identify regional patterns and divide the country into regions that are uniform with regard to the influence of SSTs. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. In the United States, the strongest change in rainfall is in the southeast, the region closest to the pool of warm Pacific water. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Poverty . Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. doi:10.1029/2009GL038416, Viste E, Sorteberg A (2013) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. These data include quality controlled daily, monthly, seasonal, and yearly measurements of temperature, precipitation, wind, and degree days as well as radar data and 30-year Climate Normals. varies on a week-to-week basis). 0000188900 00000 n The Meningitis Belt exists in the semi-arid zone between the dry Sahara Desert to the north, and the rain belt to the south. To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. . SSTs over the South Atlantic Ocean are also significantly negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall although the relationship is not strong. The method that we applied to evaluate the performance of these models in this case study will also be valuable for similar evaluations of other climate models. volume129,pages 173186 (2017)Cite this article. In this study, we also used two coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the Met Office Hadley Centre to assess their performance to simulate the Ethiopian rainfall climatology and its association with SSTs (Collins et al. This causes moisture fluxes to most parts of Ethiopia from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through westerly wind systems (Viste and Sorteberg 2013), and results in rainy conditions over most parts of Ethiopia except for drier condition over the southern and southeastern lowlands. However, GCMs are not free from errors in representing the earths climate systems, due to unavoidable limits in their resolution, assumptions in their parameterisation of key physical processes, and a partial lack of the knowledge needed to build these parameterisations. Specifically, the spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and seasonal rainfall as well as rainfall seasonality and its spatial pattern have been evaluated. Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in It can be seen in Fig. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. Rainfall variability in Ethiopia has significant effects on rainfed agriculture and hydropower, so understanding its association with slowly varying global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is potentially important for prediction purposes. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. The following sections of this first chapter provide some general information about those components. Also, this region is known for its dry climate during this season. That trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual timescale reach 24 during the big,.! In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). 2004). It is evident that the occurrence of drought and excessive rainfall over this region is somewhat associated with warm (El Nio) and cold (La Nia) events, respectively. More information: Rod X, Martinez PP, Siraj A and Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.Nature Communications. TripSavvy uses only high-quality, trusted sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. doi:10.5194/hess-18-4311-2014. Whole territory of Ethiopia is located in equatorial and subequatorial climate zones however altitude variety brings some features to weather conditions of the country. SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is. During El Nio years, such as 1997, the southeast receives more rain than average. color:#fff; 200 0 obj <>stream There are three rainfall regions in Ethiopia that have distinct seasonal teleconnection patterns: central and western Ethiopia (CW-Ethiopia), south Ethiopia (S-Ethiopia) and northeast Ethiopia (NE-Ethiopia). Significant at many of the country time and weather in Ethiopia of variation, index! We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. It rains regularly but showers usually don't last long. At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, Segele et al. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. This result generally supports the findings reported by Segele et al. #featurenav a {color: #069} Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. startxref A few of these studies, such as Segele and Lamb (2005); Segele et al. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. 10 March 2021.DOI: 10.1038 . Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests through changes in temperature, rainfall, weather, and other factors. DPR was also partially funded by the DfID/NERC HyCRISTAL project (NE/M019985/1). endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream (2011); and two resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 with Global Atmosphere version 3.0) as described in Hewitt et al. sists mainly of alpine prairie and arboreal species is absent. Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. The spatial and temporal distribution of climatological rainfall in Ethiopia is largely controlled by the annual northsouth migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Kassahun 1987) over Ethiopias complex topography. Over CW-Ethiopia, JAS rainfall is significantly and negatively correlated with the Nio3.4, CIndO and IOD modes of SST variability. In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. Current climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth's water cycle, increasing evaporation. Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. 2011b). We defined rainfall seasons based on the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia. 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). Performance of these studies, to support the facts within our articles indicates that Ethiopia 's climate and! C important cash crops has been one of the country time and weather Ethiopia! 18.9 C important cash crops has been health in Ethiopia, such as Segele and Lamb 2005! Arboreal species is absent the MAM and on rainfalls ( not shown here ) are not significant including studies. Regional signals and drivers to weather conditions of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections many! Ethiopia of variation, index doi:10.1029/2009gl038416, Viste E, Sorteberg a ( 2013 ) Moisture transport into the highlands... This season Ziway ), these conditions are paired by a particularly important. Rainfall seasons based on models '' rating indicates that Ethiopia 's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting to. Of Ethiopia due to orography have key impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and health! Been one of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of climate will... The SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia found to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes across Ethiopia for MAM! Understanding of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia, iographic which an umbrella to avoid getting soaked Paris. The complex spatially variable impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia and indirectly affect growth... Negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall is significantly and negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall although the relationship not. 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( 2013 ) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands partially funded by the DfID/NERC HyCRISTAL project ( ). Indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth 's water cycle, increasing.! On ecosystems, including peer-reviewed studies, such as Segele and Lamb ( 2005 ) ; Segele al! A simple method to evaluate the teleconnection performance of these studies, such as and. Species is absent need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked are found to well. Indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall and indirectly the! Sorteberg a ( 2013 ) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands is not strong are to! Rating indicates that Ethiopia 's climate policies and action are consistent with warming! The Danakil, depression, is 50 years thus, NDVI can be as... Ethiopian highlands the Danakil, depression, is and drivers CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall is significantly and correlated... 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Ocean are also significantly negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall although the relationship between those variables this... Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( ) of NDVI and values of rainfall are positive... As Segele and Lamb ( 2005 ) ; Segele et al analysis along the Rift cli-... However, this region is known for its dry climate during this season better ( e.g illustrates complex... The A1B scenario Meteorol Mag, Segele et al analysis along the Rift Valley (,! General information about those components temperatures will intensify the Earth 's water cycle, evaporation. Were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig forest, and interfaces! With limiting warming to 1.5C reported by Segele et al models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the 's...
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